Why the triggered Sahm Rule isn't pointing to a recession

July's jobs report saw the unemployment rate shoot up to a three-year high, stoking fears of a recession and kicking off a three-day market sell-off. PIMCO managing director and economist Tiffany Wilding joins Morning Brief to discuss why the print doesn't necessarily indicate a recession on the horizon.

Wilding notes that recession fears were sparked when July's jobs report triggered the Sahm Rule, now seemingly eased by July's retail sales data and last week's initial jobless claims. Wilding finds the labor market drivers pushing the unemployment rate higher are different from the previous Sahm Rule triggers, noting immigration's contribution to the job market and the labor market coming into a "better balance" overall.

The latest reading on initial jobless claims and July's retail sales report are some of the most recent data points highlighting strength in the economy and quelling rising recession fears. She notes that the data "should give the Fed [Federal Reserve] much more confidence that we are seeing progress," and adds, "Because of this distribution of risks changing on inflation, it does mean they can start to reduce policy. You know, much less need for restrictive policy in that environment" for interest rates.

Catch the Morning Brief's full interview with PIMCO managing director and economist Tiffany Wilding.

For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Morning Brief.

This post was written by Melanie Riehl

Advertisement