September CPI dims stocks, Fed's rate cut path: Morning Brief

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On today's episode of Morning Brief, Hosts Seana Smith and Brad Smith break the latest Consumer Price Index data and analyze the market open.

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report shows prices rose 0.2% in September, which was more than the 0.1% Bloomberg consensus estimate. Year-over-year prices rose 2.4% versus the 2.3% estimate. When stripping out the more volatile food and energy components, prices rose 0.3% month-over-month and 3.3% year-over-year, both higher than economists were expecting.

US stocks (^DJI, ^IXIC, ^GSPC) opened Thursday's session lower as Wall Street digested the hotter-than-expected CPI report. The Nasdaq Composite fell by over 0.40%.

Yahoo Finance Senior Reporter Alexandra Canal and Catalysts Anchor Madison Mills break down inflation's impact on shelter pricing and auto insurance costs.

Yardeni Research Chief Markets Strategist Eric Wallerstein believes that following September's CPI print, the Federal Reserve doesn't have to cut rates during the rest of 2024. He explains, "Unfortunately, we're going to get some weather impacts in the jobs data in the coming months. But I think as long as inflation isn't getting towards 2% so dramatically, and there's no crisis that unfolds in the labor market, which I don't foresee, I don't think there's anything that gives the Fed reason to cut further this year," Wallerstein explains.

Omair Sharif, Inflation Insights president, adds, “Admittedly, some things were hotter than expected today. But I think some of that stuff is more likely than not to just be a one-off in this particular month." He continues, “Given that hot print today, even though I do think some of this stuff will reverse course pretty quickly, I think that's if you were thinking 50 bps [cut at the Fed’s November meeting] that's pretty much been wiped out at this stage… I think the Fed still wants to progress slowly here. So I think 25 [bps cut] is the base case for November.”

Marvin Loh, State Street senior global macro strategist discusses how the tech sector (XLK) will be impacted by the Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle. Loh believes that tech will be "one of the bigger beneficiaries" of the Fed's interest rate cuts. He notes that the sector has demonstrated strong earnings growth, and it is one of the few areas of the market that hasn't experienced significant revisions. "So that kind of stronger story is still out there. You know, quality growth generating cash and really defendable moats are kind of where you want to put some of your long-term bets," he tells Yahoo Finance.