Why this longtime Fed watcher thinks the FOMC will cut by 50bps
Prior to founding Serpa Pinto Advisory, Jon Hilsenrath was a writer and editor at The Wall Street Journal covering the Federal Reserve. He notes that "the Fed is going to be doing a lot of easing over the next year," about 2%, he thinks, over the next 12 to 15 months. Earlier this year, Hilsenrath says that the Fed may have cut that much over the course of two years, not 12 to 15 months, and, as a result, "they are compressing a lot of interest rates cuts into a short period." Hilsenrath adds that there was an influx of data heading to the meeting, creating "noise" about where there will be a 25 or 50-basis point cut on Wednesday. He thinks the Fed will cut by 50 basis points because "they've just got work to do. They've got a long way to go to get down two full percentage points in a year. It makes sense to do your biggest cuts when you're farthest away from neutral. This is the farthest they are going to be from neutral, so they're doing the biggest cut first." Watch the video above to hear why Hilsenrath thinks the Fed's messaging is easier if they cut by 25 basis points and what may lie ahead for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen after the election. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Market Domination Overtime. This post was written by Stephanie Mikulich.
