Big Tech earnings start this week, with a broad range of companies reporting. As well, key inflation data is due as is an update on GDP. Last week, markets were volatile and there was a theme of rotation out of Information Technology and into small caps. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.7% for the week, the S&P 500 lost 2%, and the Nasdaq fell 3.7%. Year to date, the Dow is higher by 7%, the S&P is up 15%, and the Nasdaq is 18% ahead. On the economic calendar, Friday is the big day, with fresh inflation data. Economists are looking for more evidence that inflation is tracking lower. If it is, that should help build the case for a Fed rate cut. This week, the data comes in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE). In May, both PCE and Core PCE came in at 2.6%. We expect both to slow to 2.4% for June. In other economic news, Existing Home Sales data will be reported on Tuesday. On Wednesday, New Home Sales come out. On Thursday, GDP and Durable Goods Orders hit the tape. And on Friday, Personal Income and Personal Spending will be updated. On the earnings calendar, Monday brings news from Verizon. On Tuesday, Alphabet, Tesla, Comcast, Coca-Cola, GE Aerospace, General Motors, Philip Morris, UPS, and Lockheed Martin. On Wednesday, IBM, AT&T, Chipotle, and Ford. On Thursday, Northrop Grumman, American Airlines, Southwest Airlines, Juniper Networks, AstraZeneca, and Union Pacific. And on Friday, 3M, Bristol Myers Squibb, Colgate-Palmolive, and Charter Communications. Earnings are coming in 11.1% higher this quarter than a year ago, but only 14% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far. Expectations are for 8%-12% earnings growth in the second quarter. This follows 8% growth in 1Q and 10% in 4Q23. At Argus, we forecast that full-year 2024 EPS will come in 8%-9% better than last year. Last week, mortgage rates fell 12 basis points to 6.77% for the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Gas prices rose a penny to $3.50 per gallon for the average price of regular gas. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow indicator is forecasting for 2Q and calls for expansion of 2.7%. The Cleveland Fed CPINow indicator forecasts 3.01% for July CPI. The next Fed rate decision is on July 31, with odds at 4% for a cut. Then in mid-September, there is a big jump in odds for a cut, to 98%. That spike follows that recent news that inflation is tracking down and the labor market is showing some weakness. As the probability is so high for a rate cut at the September meeting, the odds have jumped to 60% for a second cut in November. In December 18, odds increase to 94% for that second cut. All of this data is according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered and a new bull market has started, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue and the Federal Reserve has yet to lower rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

Rapidly rising inflation in 2022 knocked stocks into a bear market. While growth strategies suffered the most, value strategies also declined. Even bond prices were lower that year. Stocks have recovered and a new bull market has started, but gains have been largely driven by only a handful of high-tech companies. Inflation remains an issue and the Federal Reserve has yet to lower rates. Is a recession in the offing? With all the uncertainty, what's a potential equity strategy for investors amid all the uncertainty? Argus believes that Min Vol is an all-weather strategy that is timely in any investing climate. Academic literature and, more to the point, returns history, indicate that Min Vol can deliver market-matching returns on an absolute basis and superior returns on a risk-adjusted basis over various time periods.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

U.S. markets were mixed on Friday morning, but are still on track for gains for the week. On the earnings front, FedEx (FDX) rose 7% on an earnings beat, while Nike (NKE) was down about 7% on a weak outlook. The Dow was down 0.5%, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained less than 0.1%. Crude oil traded above $80 per barrel, while gold fell $16 to $2169 per ounce.

Stocks edged lower on Friday after briefly rising following a stronger-than-expected employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 199,000 payroll jobs in November, up from 150,000 in October and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 185,000. The increase was driven in part by the return of workers following the UAW and Hollywood strikes. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October and below the consensus forecast. The University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 69.4. The Dow rose 0.02%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell $22 to $2025 per ounce.

The U.S. economy generated 336,000 new jobs in September, well above our forecast of 150,000. August's 187,000 result was revised higher to 227,000. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%. The report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) raised concerns that the Fed's 5.25%-5.5% policy rate may not be high enough to cool the economy and that the central bank may need to raise rates when it meets on October 31 and November 1. Average hourly earnings increased seven cents month-to-month and are now 4.2% higher year-over-year, just below the 4.3% rise in August. The average workweek was unchanged at 34.4 hours in September. Employment continued to trend up in leisure and hospitality; government; healthcare; professional, scientific, and technical services; and social assistance. Employment was little changed in transportation and warehousing; mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction; construction; manufacturing; wholesale trade; retail trade; financial activities; and other services. Employment in the information sector has declined by 45,000 since May because of labor disputes in the motion picture and recording industries. Job gains in July and August were revised higher by 119,000. According a separate report from the BLS, the number of job openings in August increased to 9.6 million from 8.9 million a month earlier. After this morning's report, stocks futures declined and the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose. Before the release, futures suggested a 21% probability that the Fed will raise the funds rate on November 1. After the release, that probability rose to 30%.

Last week, we reported that insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research suggested insiders were awaiting a catalyst, this after some signs of positive sentiment during earnings season, solid year-to-date gains in stocks, but a distinct stall in stock prices since July. That remains the case this week, if not even more so. All of the major sentiment gauges from Vickers are now in lockstep at levels that clearly suggest little motivation to acquire shares, yet equally little impulse to sell.

In 2033, real GDP might be growing at 1.7%, the unemployment rate might be 4.2%, CPI might be running at 2.2%, PCE inflation might be 2%, the fed funds rate might be 2.5%, the 10-year Treasury yield might be 4.2%, the 30-year mortgage rate might be 6%, and the S&P 500 might trade at 24-times earnings. What could go wrong? Perhaps wars, pandemics, natural disasters, new technology, supply-chain problems, and changes in tax and immigration laws. Yes, it is impossible to predict what will happen in a decade. But anyone who wants to build a business, invest, or commit to mortgage payments needs to have estimates. These forecasts are based on estimates published by the Congressional Budget office, the Federal Reserve Board members, regional bank presidents, and more than 50 economists in the Philadelphia Fed's quarterly Survey of Professional Forecasters. The estimate of GDP is based on the CBO's Long-Term Economic Outlook and Extended Baseline Projections, including GDP building blocks of 0.4% population growth and 1.4% labor force productivity growth. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections includes "longer-run" forecasts for Real GDP growth (1.8%), the unemployment rate (4.0%), PCE inflation (2.0%) and the fed funds rate (2.5). We based our 4.2% estimate of the 10-year yield on the 200-basis-point average spread between the Treasury yield and the CPI since 1962. The 30-year mortgage rate has averaged 175 basis points more than the 10-year Treasury since 1971. Our P/E estimate of 23.8-times is based on the Fed Model. The CBO estimates put the T-note rate at 3.8% in 2033, which puts the mortgage rate at 5.55%, and the 2033 P/E at 26-times -- which is about where we are right now.

"Are we there yet?" After 10 increases to the fed funds rate and jumps in other rates, weary consumers and investors are asking the question that kids ask from the back seat of vacation-bound cars. The answer is "almost," as per Fed Chair Powell in his recent Senate Banking Committee testimony. Friday's report on nonfarm payrolls from the Labor Department will provide the first (and most-important) data on economic activity from June and since the central bank "paused" its monetary tightening on June 14. Futures contracts suggest an 85% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise the target range by 25 basis points to 5.25%-5.5% when it meets on July 26 and a 15% chance that the central bank will stand pat. Ongoing strong job creation and wage growth could mean that additional rate hikes are down the road. An unemployment rate near 4% could mean that 5 percentage points of policy tightening since March 2022 have put the economy on a collision course with recession. In May, employers added a stronger-than-expected 339,000 new jobs. Our forecast anticipates that 190,000 new positions were created in June. This reflects our expectation for a healthy-but-decelerating job market. Job openings still exceed people unemployed, but initial jobless claims have risen and Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 job cuts in May. We look for the unemployment rate to remain at 3.7% and for average hourly wage gains to rise 4.2%. What does Mr. Powell anticipate? "We expect the labor market to gradually cool," he told the Senate.

Stocks gave up early gains on Monday morning, led by declines in the Communication Services and Healthcare sectors, as investors awaited new data on inflation, consumer confidence, and GDP growth later in the week. On the earnings front, Carnival shares fell 11% after the cruise operator posted a narrower-than-expected fiscal 2Q loss but offered disappointing EPS guidance for the current quarter. The Dow, the S&P, and the Nasdaq were all down about 0.2%. Crude oil traded near $69 per barrel while gold rose $6 to $1936 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, extending their Thursday rally. Services sector data was better than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing PMI slipped to 55.1 in February, down slightly from 55.2 in January but still indicating expansion. The reading also topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.5. On the earnings front, Costco shares fell more than 3% after the company missed the fiscal 2Q consensus sales estimate amid cautious consumer spending. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $79 per barrel, while gold rose $13 to $1853 per ounce.Stocks rose on Friday morning, extending their Thursday rally. Services sector data was better than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its nonmanufacturing PMI slipped to 55.1 in February, down slightly from 55.2 in January but still indicating expansion. The reading also topped the Reuters consensus forecast of 54.5. On the earnings front, Costco shares fell more than 3% after the company missed the fiscal 2Q consensus sales estimate amid cautious consumer spending. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P 1.1%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil rose more than 1% to $79 per barrel, while gold rose $13 to $1853 per ounce.

To have been bearish in 2022 certainly would have served one well. Corporate insiders normally sell shares more often than they buy shares, and did that pretty much all year - with notable buying jags that aligned with market lows. The buying resulted in nice-but-brief outperformance, which is a good thing. But insiders never sold at levels that suggested broad-based concern. With the year-to-date data as of this writing showing the DJIA down 9%, the S&P 500 off 19%, and the Nasdaq lower by 33%, we can't fault those who say insiders missed the mark in 2022.

Dividend income, an important element of total return, is often overlooked amid gyrations in the stock market. Between 1930 and 2012, dividend income accounted for 42% of the total return of the S&P 500, according to Hartford Funds. And that's just the average. In some decades, dividends accounted for more than 50% of total returns and even 100% of returns. More recently, dividends have accounted for 15%-20% of returns. Still, in 2018, dividend payments softened the blow when most market indices declined as the Federal Reserve hiked rates. The pattern was repeated in 2022 as well. Not all dividends are created equal, though, and it is important to understand the difference between the two main categories: high-yield stocks and dividend-growth stocks.

Stocks were mostly lower on Thursday as investors weighed new inflation and employment data, along with a PMI index that showed a decline in manufacturing activity - the first since May 2020. The core PCE price index for October showed inflation slowing from both the prior month and the prior year, while first-time jobless claims were lower than expected. The Labor Department said that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped by 16,000 to 225,000 for the week ended November 26, below the consensus of 235,000. On Friday morning, investors will be focused on the Labor Department's November employment report. The current consensus calls for the addition of 200,000 payroll jobs, down from 261,000 in October, and a slightly higher unemployment rate of 3.8%. The Dow fell 0.56%, the S&P fell 0.09%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.13%. Crude oil rose 1% to more than $81 per barrel, while gold jumped $57 to $1817 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Monday morning, reversing course once again after sharp losses on Friday. Bank of America shares rose nearly 5% after the company posted better-than-expected third-quarter results, helped by strong growth in net interest income. In China, the National Bureau of Statistics surprised investors by delaying the release of its 3Q GDP report, along with retail sales and industrial production data for September. The Dow rose 1.6%, the S&P 2.4%, and the Nasdaq 2.9%. Crude oil traded near $86 per barrel, while gold rose $20 to $1669 per ounce.

Stocks are falling Tuesday morning as consumer prices rose more than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed overall prices rising 0.1% last month after staying flat in July, while analysts expected a 0.1% decline. Core consumer prices (excluding food and energy) jumped 0.6% higher following a 0.3% increase in July; analysts had expected another 0.3% hike. The jump in core prices accelerated the year-over-year rate from 5.9% in July to 6.3% in August. The CPI report suggests that the next rate hike will likely be 75 basis points and may be followed by another similar increase at the following FOMC meeting. The S&P 500 fell 3%, the Dow 3% and the Nasdaq lost 4%. Crude oil fell 1% and gold fell $25 to $1,715 per ounce.

In this edition, Intermodal Industry Revenue Surging, Equities in Deeply Undervalued Territory, Barratt Shares Are Compelling, and Kroger, Americold, And DocuSign

Stocks were mixed in volatile trading on Friday morning as investors continued to focus on inflation, rate hikes, and prospects for recession. Manufacturing data was weaker than expected. The Federal Reserve said that production at U.S. factories fell 0.1% in May after rising 0.8% in April. The consensus called for modest growth of 0.3%. Including mines and utilities, overall industrial production rose 0.2%, down from 1.4% growth a month earlier. The Dow fell 0.2%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.9%. Crude oil fell sharply to $111 per barrel, while gold traded near $1841 per ounce.

Stocks are getting pasted so far in June, with the S&P 500 down almost 4% on June 13 alone, and the Nasdaq and QQQs off 4.6%. Over the previous three trading sessions before that, the '500' plunged 9% and the Nasdaq and the QQQs plummeted about 10.5%. That was the largest three-day collapse for the '500' and the Nasdaq since the pandemic began, and the largest decline for the QQQs since September 2020.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose strongly on Wednesday morning, recouping some of their recent losses. The rally came a day after the U.S. banned all Russian oil and gas imports, and more major consumer companies, including McDonald's, Starbucks, and Coca-Cola, said that they would suspend operations in Russia. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that U.S. job openings held near record levels in January. The department's JOLTS survey reported job openings of 11.26 million, down from 11.4 million in December but above the consensus forecast. The Dow rose 1.8%, the S&P 2.2%, and the Nasdaq 2.8%. Crude oil slipped back to $119 per barrel, while gold fell $36 to $2008 per ounce.

This edition features cement companies, grocery stores, and virtual banking.

Stocks rose on Monday morning, recovering from Friday's selloff, amid cautious optimism that the Omicron variant would not result in more severe cases of COVID than earlier variants. Nvidia shares fell 5%, adding to Friday's losses, after the FTC sued to block the company's planned purchase of British chip technology provider Arm. The deal is also under investigation in the UK and the EU. The Dow rose 1.7%, the S&P 1.0%, and the Nasdaq 0.4%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $68 per barrel, while gold traded near $1779 per ounce.

Our proprietary Treasury Bond Yield Model is signaling that bond yields, which have risen 50 basis points since August, are still too low based on fundamentals. Our model takes into account factors such as current yields, GDP growth, long-term inflation, stock prices, and earnings in order to make an asset-allocation recommendation between stocks and bonds. We smooth trends out over a five-year period to avoid short-term momentum swings. Our current 10-year T-bond fair value yield is 3.7%. The normal valuation range has a floor of 2.5% and a ceiling of 5.0%. The current 10-year bond yield is around 1.65%, below the low end of the fundamental range and about 55% below fair value. Why is this the case (especially given recent GDP growth and inflation trends, not to mention aggressive fiscal stimulus spending from Washington during the pandemic)? In our view, the low U.S. yields most likely reflect technical factors such as heavy buying from overseas investors seeking safety (or at least, yields that are not below zero), rather than the economic fundamentals. From an asset-allocation standpoint, we think bonds remain fully valued compared to stocks and recommend that long-term investors modestly favor equities in their diversified portfolios.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning as the major indices struggled to break last week's losing streak. Inflation expectations continued to rise. The New York Federal Reserve said that consumers' median inflation expectations over the next year rose to 5.2% in August, the highest reading since the start of the series in 2013. Based on the median expectation in the Fed's survey, consumers also expect average inflation of 4.0% over the next three years. The Dow rose 0.7%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil rose 1% to $70.50 per barrel, while gold traded near $1797 per ounce.

The Vickers Top Buyers & Sellers is a daily report that identifies the five companies the largest insider purchase transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions as well as the five companies the largest insider sales transactions based on the dollar value of the transactions.

Stocks rose on Monday morning recovering some of last week's losses. Tomorrow, May existing home sales will be released. They are expected to remain close to the 5.80 million SAAR reported in April. The S&P was up 1.2% and the Nasdaq 0.6% and the Dow was up 1.6%. Crude oil traded near $73 per barrel, while gold traded near $1782 per ounce.