The U.S. stock market tends to rise, notwithstanding a pullback or correction from time to time. The long-term upward trajectory has a foundation in the country's democratic political system and its market-based, capitalist economic system that is relatively transparent and rewards innovation. In theory, the stock market efficiently allocates the nation's capital, generating solid returns over economic cycles. And then there is September. Indeed, our analysis of monthly S&P 500 returns going back to 1980 indicates that September is now the only month with an average loss. Now not every September is negative. The month has a "win percentage" of 46%. But there have been some bombs, including 2022 (-9.3%), 1986 (-8.5%), 2001 (-8.2%), 2002 (-11%), 2008 (-14%) and 2011 (-7.2%). Last year, the S&P 500 fell 5.0% in the month, and 2022 was a 4.8% loser. September is a transition month: the August doldrums are over and corporations get back into gear after Labor Day. The IPO market typically picks up. The Federal Reserve meets, which can add to volatility. And, sometimes ominously, the third-quarter earnings season approaches. By the end of 3Q, companies are pretty sure if they are (or are not) on track to meet their financial targets. If they are not and they pre-warn about disappointing results, investors can be quick to sell not just a company but an entire sector.

Rate-Cut Rotation August has a reputation as a sleepy time in global stock markets, and the U.S. is no exception. Particularly in the second half of the month, investors head off to the mountains or the beach; trading desks are lightly staffed; and phone calls tend to dwindle. Little surprise that August on balance is an inconclusive month: since 1980, the S&P 500 has averaged a flat performance for the eighth month. There are outliers in both directions, of course, with big gains in 1982, 2002, and 2020; and big losses in 1990, 1998, and 2011. A Frantic August 2024 With one trading week remaining as we prepared this article, the S&P 500 was up about 2% for August 2024. While that number or something like it will be put in the ledger sheet, this August was uncommonly tumultuous. On the final trading day of July, the S&P 500 closed at 5,522. A deeply below-consensus July nonfarm payrolls number sent stocks tumbling, and by 8/5/24, the index was 6% below that level at 5,196. The suddenly popular perception was that the Fed, after badly missing the onset of inflation two-plus years earlier, had held rates too high for too long and was now allowing the economy to slip into recession. The panicky selling in the market belied other evidence that the economy was okay, if not exactly roaring. Second-quarter 2024 GDP grew 2.8%, double the growth rate reported for the first quarter. In addition, second-quarter S&P 500 earnings from continuing operations increased year-over-year in low double-digits, for the strongest growth in nine quarters. Simultaneously, there are rifts in the consumer and business economies, because goods and services have been too expensive for too long. As of the beginning of August's final trading week, the S&P 500 had climbed back to within a percentage point of its all-time high. Fed Chair Jay Powell used the forum of this year's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium to allay recession fears. In his calm and reassuring speech, the Fed Chair stated that the 'time has come' to cut interest rates in response to cooler inflation and slowing economic growth. Inflation has 'declined significantly,' he added, and the labor market 'is no longer overheated.' Perhaps most notably, Fed Chair Powell acknowledged, 'the balance of risks to our two mandates has changed.' Inflation is receding, and the mandate to return inflation to 2% has nearly been met. At the same time, the economy has softened from recent peaks, and the mandate to maintain maximum sustainable employment is now at risk. Reversals in Fed policy, and particularly the move from raising rates to cutting rates, inevitably come at a fraught time for the economy. In those periods, the economy is seen as vulnerable to too little stimulus, while inflation is at risk of returning from too much stimulus. The Fed Chair's calm tone in addressing the dual mandate, in our view, was a necessary lubricant in the shift from restrictive to accommodative monetary policy. The market response - an 8.4% rally in the S&P 500 off the 8/5/24 lows, to 5,635 at the 8/23/24 close - suggests that investors broadly feel that the Fed in this cycle has successfully navigated the transition from fighting inflation to sustaining employment and economic growth. New Favored Sectors Emerge The August gain in the S&P 500 will go in the books as a single number: the markets recovered, good job, and on we go. Beneath the surface, the market in August - and in an equally tumultuous July - has been undergoing a meaningful transition at the sector level. Investors' nearly two-year fascination with AI stocks has not gone away, but it has moderated somewhat. And AI stock winnings may now be a vital source of funds for investing in other areas perceived as timely in the currently unfolding interest-rate environment. During the third quarter to date, the two best-performing sectors have been Utilities and Real Estate. With one trading week left in August, the iShares Real Estate ETF IYR is up 14% for 3Q24; and iShares Dow Jones US Utility ETF is up 10%. Both sectors are perceived as sensitive to interest rates, and both have historically moved into favor when market rates of interest are declining. When Treasury and fixed-income yields begin to decline, some portion of bond investors rotate into stocks in pursuit of income provided by high-yield equity sectors. The rotation into Utilities and Real Estate stocks sends prices higher, causing yields to come down (assuming no change in dividend policy) as stock prices come up. Yields on Utilities and REIT, whether rising or falling, thus maintain a floating but relatively consistent differential with bond yields. We looked at Utilities sector performance across an approximately 20-year span dating back to the turn of the millennium. In an 11-sector index, we differentiate between a top-five finish (top-five performing sectors in any year) and a bottom-five finish (worst performing five sectors in any year). Utilities had top-five sector performances in 2007, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2018, when interest rates were declining. Utilities had bottom-five performances in 2020, 2021, and 2023, when interest rates were rising. Digging into the details from some of those years, Utilities were the third-best sector in the S&P 500 in both 2007 and 2008. The 10-year Treasury yield went from 4.8% on January 1, 2007, to 2.4% by December 31, 2008. Arguably, investors had other things on their minds in 2008, such as the Great Recession. Nevertheless, rotation into defensive sectors in troubled times is also a persistent theme. In 2011, which was not a particularly volatile time in the economy, Utilities were the best sector in the S&P 500. In that year, the 10-year year Treasury yield went from 3.4% on January 1, 2011, to 2.0% on December 31. Utilities were the second-best sector in 2014, as the 10-year year Treasury yield went from 2.8% on January 1, 2014, to 2.1% on December 31. Finally, Utilities were the second-best sector in 2018. Over a two-year span, the 10-year Treasury yield went from 2.5% on January 1, 2018, to 1.7% on December 31, 2019. We do not have the same clear signal from Real Estate, given that the stocks were not broken out from the S&P Financial Sector until 2016. Additionally, whereas Utilities are monopolistic and regulated, Real Estate stocks operate in multiple industries spanning retail shopping, commercial real estate, doctors' offices, rental apartments, and more. Still, the performance of the two leading sectors in 3Q24 signals that the financial markets have fully embraced the reality and immanence of Fed rate cuts. Other sectors that are top-5 in 3Q24 include Financials Healthcare, and Industrial; all are up in the 7%-8% range for the quarter to date. Financial stocks such as banks would seem vulnerable to compression in net interest margins as rates come down. But the bigger outcomes from lower rates are the expected revival in commercial & consumer loans, including mortgages, and strengthening in fee-based businesses such as credit financing, IPOs, and M&A. Healthcare stocks are expected to benefit as lower interest rates take some of the strain off consumer finances, enabling more discretionary and high-return medical procedures (i.e., new hips and knees). Industrial stocks are dependent on business-to-business (B2B) transactions and thus benefit from lower financing rates on major deals. The bottom-five sector stocks in 3Q24 include two of this year's big winners: Information Technology and Communication Services. Both are up in the 1%-2% range for 3Q24, despite being up 22% and 20%, respectively, for all of 2024 to date. Two of the other laggards, Energy and Materials, are close to flat in the year-to-date, as the malaise from China (which is partly demographic in nature) overhangs all parts of the commodities complex. Consumer Discretionary was among the bottom two sectors (along with Real Estate) in the first half. Given prospects for lower rates helping the housing and automotive segments, Consumer Discretionary is doing a bit better - but is still in fourth place among 11 sectors in 2024. Conclusion After being down by 2% at mid-year, Real Estate stocks have made all their progress in the two months to date of the third quarter. Utilities are the more clearly perceived winner from rate cuts, and they have been rising for most of 2024. On a full-year basis, and using the iShares Dow Jones sector REITs, Utilities are the second-best sector for 2024; they lag only Information Technology and are currently a few ticks ahead of Communication Services. Four sectors are beating the market in 2024: Information Technology, Utilities, Communication Services, and Financial. While that may not sound like much in an 11-sector market, it is better than in 2023, when three sectors (Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary) bested the S&P 500 total return of 25%. Moreover, in 2023 the three winning sectors were so dominant - up 66%, 44%, and 35%, respectively - that the other eight sectors averaged 3.4% capital appreciation for the year. In 2024, three other sectors - Healthcare, Industrial, and Staples - are all within a few percentage points of the index's 18% year-to-date gain. For the long term, portfolios and markets are healthiest when they are diversified. For a while in the current bull cycle, AI appeared to have a full-nelson lock on the market. While we do not expect the AI trade to unwind anytime soon, improved sector breadth across multiple equity sectors is a positive for preserving market momentum into year-end as well as for the years to come.

While long-term insider-sentiment readings from Vickers Stock Research are improving from recent lows, shorter-term readings have yet to find consistent footing. Indeed, the one-week sell/buy ratios from Vickers continue to dance a minuet, with steps forward followed by steps back. Still, the overall action has been sufficiently positive to allow the eight-week ratios to improve for five consecutive weeks now. While insider sentiment is not yet bullish, it will be interesting to see if sentiment improves more consistently after earnings season ends and insiders can trade freely once again.

Monday Tee Up: Back to Inflation

When global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. The yellow metal is currently trading around $2,000 per ounce, up 12% for the year; over the past five years, the range for gold prices has been $1,275-$2,075. During the first phase of the pandemic, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped 33% in six months and broke through the $2,000 level. Gold spot prices also spiked above $2,000 in early March 2022 due to the war in Ukraine, and are now at similarly high levels as tension builds in the Middle East. The current price of gold reflects the perceived safety of hard assets amid the global conflicts, as well as lower U.S. interest rates that tend to weaken the dollar, which is how the currency is priced. The outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts also helps gold, as lower rates lower the risk for a global economic recession and thus a potential decline in gold purchased for jewelry. By our reckoning, gold prices have averaged $1,950 for 2023, above our forecast for $1,850. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2024 is $2,200-$1,700, and our average forecast for the year is now $2,000. This compares to average gold prices of $1,806 in 2021, $1,781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. In conclusion, as long as geopolitics and global economic uncertainty are part of the market conversation, the price of gold is likely to remain at levels well above the historical average.

Stocks edged higher on Wednesday morning, led by the Consumer Discretionary and Industrial sectors. Employment data was weaker than expected. Payroll provider ADP said that U.S. companies added 103,000 jobs in November, down from 106,000 in October and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 130,000. ADP also reported that year-over-year wage growth slowed to 5.6% in November, the smallest increase since September 2021. The Dow rose 0.1%, the S&P was flat, and the Nasdaq rose 0.1%. Crude oil fell sharply to below $70 per barrel, while gold traded near $2048 per ounce.

Black Friday. Cyber Monday. The retailers are out in force, with a massive marketing push to win dollars during this prime shopping time during the holidays. Just like retail, some stocks are seemingly at a big discount right now. Yes, we have our own Black Friday on Wall Street. But shop with care. We look for quality companies with solid books, proven track records, and strong management. This week, we used the Argus screening tool to create a list of companies that have clean balance sheets, high levels of profitability, and that we think are also undervalued and offer possible buying opportunities. We sorted the Argus stock universe for companies with a BUY rating, a market cap over $8 billion, and the highest financial strength ratings. Then we looked for those that are furthest away from their 52-week highs, and thus likely offering the deepest discounts. The resulting list is weighted towards Financial. That's not surprising based on the beating that the Financial sector took earlier this year after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Here is our list of recommended Black Friday Stock Deals for November 2023.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning, reversing course after Wednesday's rally. Nvidia shares rose after the company posted blockbuster results for the second straight quarter and raised its 3Q sales guidance. Splunk shares also rose after the data analytics company reported strong fiscal 2Q earnings. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P 0.5%, and the Nasdaq 0.9%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold traded near $1949 per ounce.

Stocks rallied on Friday morning following a better-than-expected April employment report and a recovery in regional bank stocks. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy generated 253,000 new payroll jobs in April, above the Reuters consensus of 180,000 and a revised 165,000 in March. The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% from 3.5%. The Dow rose 1.2%, the S&P 1.4%, and the Nasdaq 1.7%. Crude oil rose nearly 4% to $71 per barrel, while gold traded near $2022 per ounce.

Even though the Federal Reserve continues to push the fed funds target rate higher, it looks like the whole yield curve, from the two-year to the 30-year, wants to break down yet again. We have seen this story before, as the entire curve remains sticky. Just like inflation.

There are periods when the stock market trades "technically" and there are periods when the action goes haywire. We are in one of the latter periods, with support and resistance levels being taken out only to see a failure and a lack of follow through. As a trader or short-term player, this is a time to sit on your hands, go outside, enjoy the warming weather, or take up a new hobby. Trading in this environment will chew you up -- and in a hurry.

The stock market held in there on Monday after some ugly early action that saw the S&P 500 (SPX) down about 1.3%. The index rallied almost 100 points by late morning before selling off over the balance of the day. It was a great session for day traders, but created more agita for the rest of us. The morning low coincided with chart support in the 3,780-3,810 region from the late-December low.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning, extending last week's losses, following earnings reports from Walmart and Home Depot. Walmart posted better-than-expected fiscal 4Q23 results, though the shares fell on management's disappointing FY24 guidance. Home Depot shares fell sharply after the company reported mixed 4Q results and projected lower earnings and flat sales in FY23. The Dow fell 1.4%, the S&P 1.2%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose to $77 per barrel, while gold traded near $1844 per ounce.

Over the past six sessions, the S&P 500 (SPX) has tacked on 5%, while both the Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 are up over 7%. The S&P MidCap 400 is up 6.3% and the Russell 2000 has popped 7.7%. The NYSE, as well as mid- and small-cap indices are opening up some distance from their 200-day averages (a good sign), while the "500" closed 18 points above its 200-day (good, not enough to declare a breakout). The next two key pieces of resistance for the "500" are the bear-market trendline (which comes in at 4,035 when looking out a week) and the December high (at 4,100).

When global economic and geopolitical conditions become unpredictable and potential inflationary threats emerge, investors often flock to gold. For most of the past decade, in which global economic growth was slow and inflation was tame, gold traded in a tight range of $1,150 to $1,350 per ounce. In 2020, though, as the pandemic began and the U.S. government responded with trillions of dollars in fiscal spending, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped through the $2,000 level -- up 67% in a little over a year. A year later, inflation soared. Now the trend appears to be unwinding. In 2022, as the Federal Reserve has lifted short-term rates aggressively to slow the economy and bring inflation under control, gold has started to drift lower, with recent prices 7% from 2022 highs. Looking ahead, we think that gold will continue its descent along with falling inflation rates. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2023 is $1,950-$1,600, and our average forecast for the year is $1,750. This compares to average gold prices of $1,800 in 2022; $1,806 in 2021; $1781 in 2020; $1,400 in 2019; $1,265 in 2018; $1,277 in 2017; $1,258 in 2016; and $1,155 in 2015. All in all, we think that falling prices of gold and other commodities such as oil point toward a lower-inflation environment in 2023.

When global economic and geopolitical conditions become unpredictable and potential inflationary threats emerge, investors often flock to gold. For most of the past decade, in which global economic growth was slow and inflation was tame, gold traded in a tight range of $1,150 to $1,350 per ounce. In 2020, though, as the pandemic began and the U.S. government responded with trillions of dollars in fiscal spending, the spot price for an ounce of gold jumped through the $2,000 level -- up 67% in a little over a year. A year later, inflation soared. Now the trend appears to be unwinding. In 2022, as the Federal Reserve has lifted short-term rates aggressively to slow the economy and bring inflation under control, gold has started to drift lower, with recent prices 7% from 2022 highs. Looking ahead, we think that gold will continue its descent along with falling inflation rates. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2023 is $1,950-$1,600, and our average forecast for the year is $1,750. This compares to average gold prices of $1,800 in 2022; $1,806 in 2021; $1781 in 2020; $1,400 in 2019; $1,265 in 2018; $1,277 in 2017; $1,258 in 2016; and $1,155 in 2015. All in all, we think that falling prices of gold and other commodities such as oil point toward a lower-inflation environment in 2023.

Monday Tee Up: Big Retail Earnings

Despite more signs of moderating inflation, stocks gave up most of their early gains on Thursday. The Labor Department reported an unexpected 0.5% decline in the July producer price index, the first negative reading since April 2020 at the onset of the pandemic. The data followed a positive reading on consumer prices on Wednesday, and raised prospects for more modest Fed rate hikes at upcoming meetings. On the employment front, new weekly claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 14,000 to 262,000, just below the consensus forecast. Continuing claims also rose slightly from the prior week. The Dow rose 0.08%, the S&P fell 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.58%. Crude oil rose more than 2% to $94 per barrel, while gold fell $10 to $1804 per ounce.

As we start the second half of 2022, we remain disciplined by looking at stocks and sectors in which we have confidence. Stocks took a beating in the first half, and at times like this, investing principles are critical. This week, we look at Basic Materials. This is not a flashy sector, often overlooked because other sectors garner headlines where consumers are more familiar with brand names. That's partly why we like the sector (it's under-the-radar), but that's not enough. The companies we examine within the sector have to stand on their own, with solid fundamentals and growth outlooks. Challenges in the supply chain persist, but have eased. Inflation is high and the Fed is raising interest rates to quell higher prices. In this environment, we expect demand for commodities to remain robust and for pricing to remain strong. The sector currently accounts for 2.8% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as chemicals, paper, metals, and mining. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 4%. We think investors should Over-Weight the sector and allocate 3% of diversified portfolios to stocks in the sector. Basic Materials is slightly over-performing the S&P 500 thus far in 2022, with a loss of 18.7% compared to the S&P's loss of 20.6%. Here are some of our BUY-rated Basic Materials companies, which were selected using the Argus screening tool and requiring that the stocks be BUY-rated and with an Argus Financial Strength rating of at least Medium-High. We feel these companies currently are best in class for this sector. Some of these companies also are included in our Model Portfolios.

We are lowering our intermediate-term technical outlook back to bearish and lowering our long-term technical outlook to neutral. The S&P 500 has lost the 3,800 region, which opens the door for a decline down to the 3,200-3,500 area. There is a confluence of technical support near 3,500, including the important 200-week average. It also represents a 50% retracement of the rally off the pandemic lows, as well as trendline support off the 2010 lows when projecting out into the second half of 2022. If the 3,500 region gives way, the next area of support is down at 3,200, which represents a 61.8% give back of the entire rally.

When global economic and geopolitical conditions become unpredictable and stocks are volatile, investors often flock to gold. In 2020, as COVID-19 emerged, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level -- up 67% in a little over a year. The fundamental factors behind the spike also included the global economic recession, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, uncommon negative interest rates in countries such as Germany, Japan, France, and Switzerland, and multi-trillions of dollars of U.S. federal government spending to help the country weather the COVID crisis. As vaccines emerged and economies recovered in 2021, gold pulled back from its highs. But with inflation percolating (remember that aggressive government spending?) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifying, the precious metal again has a bid. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2022 is $2,100-$1,600, and our average forecast for the year is $1,900. This compares to average gold prices of $1,806 in 2021, $1,781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are a part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

Stocks rose strongly on Thursday following solid earnings reports from Macy's and other retailers, and a major Tech sector acquisition, as chipmaker Broadcom announced that it would purchase VMware for $61 billion. On the economic front, the Commerce Department reported that U.S. GDP contracted at a 1.5% annualized rate in 1Q, a slight weakening from its initial estimate of a 1.4% decline, and down from 6.9% growth in the fourth quarter. Employment data was slightly better than expected. First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 210,000 for the week ended May 21, down from 218,000 a week earlier and below the consensus estimate of 215,000. The Dow rose 1.61%, the S&P 1.99%, and the Nasdaq 2.68%. Crude oil traded near $114 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1850 per ounce.

As we said earlier this week, the three major stock indices have much in common. The S&P 500 surpassed its early February high on March 29 and popped above its 200-day average as well as its 50-week average. The QQQs jumped above the February high as well as its 200-day average on March 29, but lost both with the recent weakness. The Nasdaq almost ran up to its 200-day on March 29, but never made it -- and has been below this key average since January 14. With the losses this week, all three indices sit between their 50- and 200-day averages, while the Nasdaq and the QQQs remain below their 50-week average.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) spiked almost 9% on Thursday and was sitting near $104/barrel. It had been pummeled since soaring to an intraday high of $130 last Monday, dropping all the way to $93.50 earlier this week. Crude traced out a topping tail (bearish candlestick) often seen at intermediate-term peaks. Prices went parabolic at the beginning of March, which is also a sign of a blowoff that cannot be sustained. Both the daily and weekly 14-period RSI recently cycled into extreme overbought condition, which is another warning.

The stock market continues to be battered and we have finally reached the white-knuckle point of the decline, with Russia's actions in Ukraine adding to the mix. While there was little evidence of panic on Wednesday (such as we saw in the latter part of January), results for NYSE decliners versus advancers and NYSE up volume versus total volume were well ahead the levels of just a few weeks ago. Based on the charts of the indices, we could get another dose of "throw in the towel" trading action.

When global economic and geopolitical conditions become unpredictable, and stocks get volatile, investors often flock to gold. In 2020, as COVID-19 emerged, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level -- up 67% in a little over a year. The fundamental factors behind the uptrend (in addition the virus) included the global economic recession; increased volatility in U.S. stock markets; uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and Switzerland; and multi-trillions of dollars of U.S. federal government spending to help the country weather the COVID-19 crisis. As vaccines emerged and economies recovered through 2021, gold pulled back from its highs. But now that inflation is percolating (remember the aggressive government spending?) and the Russia-Ukraine conflict is intensifying, the precious metal again has a bid. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2022 is $2,100-$1,600, and our average forecast for the year is $1,900. This compares to average gold prices of $1,806 in 2021, $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

The S&P 500 failed miserably at the end of the week, getting hammered on Thursday and Friday. The two-day loss was 3.7%, the worst since October 2020. Interestingly, the index fell 9.6% in 2020 while the current decline is 9.8%. But this time, the index has broken below its 200-day and 21-week exponential averages (EMA); back in 2020, we remained above the 200-day and the 21-week EMA acted as support.

The S&P 500 approached a key support area on Monday and bounced quite nicely. The 21-week exponential (EMA) sits at 4,570, and has provided solid support going back to early 2020. Channel support comes in at 4,550, while the middle weekly Bollinger Band lies at 4,578. The low on the "500" yesterday was 4,582. Lower supports come in at 4,445 from the 10-month EMA, and at 4,410 from the 200-day average.

After a robust stock rally on Fed day (aka Wednesday), certain major indices got crushed on Thursday, giving back all of Wednesday's gain. Was this a one-day wonder? The S&P 500 held up the best, falling 0.9%. Meanwhile the Nasdaq and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) got walloped 2.5%, the S&P 400 fell 1.4%, and the Russell 2000 (the weakest of the group since peaking on November 8) got hit for 2%. The IWM continues to flirt with its recent low near 212 and the bottom of its range back to January (at 205).

When stocks get volatile, and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Last year, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. The fundamental factors that drove that uptrend in addition to the virus included the global economic recession, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and Switzerland, and multi-trillions of dollars of U.S. federal government spending to help the country weather the COVID-19 crisis. As cases declined and economies recovered in 2H20 and 2021, gold has pulled back from its highs. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2021 is $2,000-$1,700, and our average for the year is now $1,800, up from our prior forecast of $1,775. This compares to average gold prices of $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. That said, as long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

The stock market moved higher last week during a busy week that consisted of a steady stream of earnings reports and election results. Tech stocks far outperformed blue chips for a third straight week. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 204 points, or 0.56%. The S&P 500 was up 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.20%. For the week, the DJIA was up 508 points, or 1.42%, the S&P 500 was up 2.00%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 3.05%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 18.69%, the S&P 500 is up 25.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 23.92%.

Stocks fell on Tuesday morning following weaker-than-expected July retail sales. The Commerce Department said that U.S. retail sales fell 1.1% last month, down from a gain of 0.7% in June and below the consensus forecast, which called for a decline of 0.3%. However, manufacturing data was positive. The Federal Reserve said that output at U.S. factories rose 1.4% in July, up from a decline of 0.3% in June and above the consensus forecast. The Dow fell 0.8%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.1%. Crude oil traded near $67.50 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1783 per ounce.

When stocks get volatile and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Last year, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. The fundamental factors that drove that uptrend in addition to the virus included the global economic recession, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and Switzerland, and multi-trillions of dollars of U.S. federal government spending to help the country weather the COVID-19 crisis. As cases declined and economies recovered in 2H20 and 1H21, gold has pulled back from its highs. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2021 is $2,000-$1,700, and our average for the year is now $1,775, down from our prior forecast of $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016, and $1,155 in 2015. That said, as long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

When stocks are volatile and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Last year, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. The fundamental factors that drove that uptrend (in addition to the virus) included the global economic recession, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and Switzerland, and multi-trillions of dollars of U.S. federal government spending to help the country weather COVID-19. As virus cases declined and economies recovered, gold pulled back from its highs, though it seems to have found a base near $1,700 as the dollar weakens and interest rates head back down. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2021 is $2,000-$1,700, and our average for the year is $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday morning following news that the Biden administration would support intellectual property waivers on coronavirus vaccines. Pfizer and Moderna shares were down sharply, though JNJ was flat. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 498,000 for the week ended May 1, down from 590,000 a week earlier and below the Bloomberg consensus of 538,000. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P rose 0.1%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.3%. Crude oil fell 1% to $65 per barrel, while gold traded near $1815 per ounce.

Are Rising Rates Threatening the Housing Rally?

When stocks get volatile, and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. In the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. The fundamental factors that drove that uptrend (in addition to the virus) include the global economic recession, increased volatility in .U.S stocks, uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and to Switzerland, and the prospect for another trillion-dollar-plus federal government spending plan to help the U.S. weather the COVID-19 crisis. From a technical standpoint, gold recently broke out of a three-year trading range and remains in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows that dates back to December 2016. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2021 is $2,000-$1,700, and our average for the year is $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1781 in 2020, $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

Stocks finished down in the trading week ended November 20, as an historical year gallops toward a close. The S&P 500 and DJIA were each down less than a percentage point despite the worsening pandemic and the president's efforts to overturn the election results. Still, November has so far logged an 8.8% gain on the S&P 500, propelled higher by the positive vaccine news out of Pfizer and Moderna.

When stocks are volatile and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Recently, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. Fundamental factors driving the uptrend (in addition to the virus) include the global economic recession, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, uncommon negative interest rates in countries such as Germany, Japan, France and Switzerland, and the prospect for another trillion-dollar-plus federal government spending plan to help the U.S. population weather the COVID-19 crisis. From a technical standpoint, gold recently broke out of a three-year trading range and appears to be in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows that dates back to December 2016. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2020 is $1,450-$2,200 and our average for the year is $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

Major indices rebounded sharply on what would have been a "turnaround Tuesday" if not for the holiday, recouping some of the prior three-day day spanking. More importantly, the indices held support just where they needed to on Tuesday (that being the 50-day simple or 50-day exponential (EMA) averages). As such, the intermediate-term trend is still on the bullish side. The S&P 500 finished with a 2% gain, the Nasdaq rose 2.7% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) jumped 3%. The three-day "tech wreck" seemed to be a thing of the past.

Major indices rebounded sharply on what would have been a "turnaround Tuesday" if not for the holiday, recouping some of the prior three-day day spanking. More importantly, the indices held support just where they needed to on Tuesday (that being the 50-day simple or 50-day exponential (EMA) averages). As such, the intermediate-term trend is still on the bullish side. The S&P 500 finished with a 2% gain, the Nasdaq rose 2.7% and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) jumped 3%. The three-day "tech wreck" seemed to be a thing of the past.

When stocks get volatile, and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Recently, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. In addition to the virus, the fundamental factors driving the uptrend include the potential impact of renewed wars on global GDP growth, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and to Switzerland. From a technical standpoint, gold recently broke out of a three-year trading range and now appears to be in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows that dates back to December 2016. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2020 is $1,450-$2,200, and our average for the year is $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.

When stocks get volatile, and global economic conditions become unpredictable, investors often flock to gold. Recently, in the wake of the spread of the coronavirus, the spot price for an ounce of gold broke through the $2,000 level. In addition to the virus, the fundamental factors driving the uptrend include the potential impact of renewed wars on global GDP growth, increased volatility in U.S. stock markets, the uncertainty surrounding the U.S. presidential election and uncommon negative interest rates in countries ranging from Germany to Japan to France and to Switzerland. From a technical standpoint, gold recently broke out of a three-year trading range and now appears to be in a bullish pattern of higher highs and higher lows that dates back to December 2016. Our forecast trading range for gold in 2020 is $1,450-$2,200, and our average for the year is $1,800. This compares to average gold prices of $1,400 in 2019, $1,265 in 2018, $1,277 in 2017, $1,258 in 2016 and $1,155 in 2015. As long as global economic uncertainty and virus fears are part of the market conversation, gold is likely to remain in demand.