With all things viewed in context, insider-sentiment data from Vickers Stock Research is 'better' this week than in other recent weeks. The sell/buy ratios from Vickers this week are indeed vastly improved over the last few weeks. The NYSE One-Week Sell/Buy Ratio is now 4.04, a big improvement from 11.00 last week and 11.87 the week before that. On the Nasdaq, the one-week reading is now 3.39 and compares very favorably with a 10.53 result recorded three weeks ago, as the Nasdaq had soured a week before the NYSE. So the trend is good, but, contextually, the ratios are still not clearly bullish - just a lot less bearish. Drilling down, the number of insider sell transactions grew higher still this week, with a 20% increase in sales compared to last week. But, in a positive offset, the number of purchase transactions also popped -- and by 161%. End of day, insiders seem less panicky than they did a few weeks ago - and that that seems to align with the mood of investors in general. But let's not forget that, in context, the S&P 500 closed last week at a level that is still 323 points below where it was in mid-July. On a sector basis, selling by insiders last week was greatest in Healthcare, with shares valued at $127 million sold versus roughly $4 million bought, followed by Information Technology, which saw nearly $90 million of shares sold. Buying outpaced selling in the Energy sector. This week, analysts at Vickers highlighted insider transactions of interest at Stryker Corp. (NYSE: SYK) and Block Inc. (NYSE: SQ).

Stocks are nearly flat to down slightly on Friday at midday. The 1Q EPS reporting season is now essentially over and trading in the next few weeks will be driven by inflation and employment data. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.6% in April to 101.8, after decreasing by 0.3% in March. The decline was driven by consumer sentiment, new orders, and negative yield spread and building permits. Crude oil is trading near $80 per barrel and gold is trading near $2412 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from global events. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. As well, there are long stretches in the record books when SMID stocks have outperformed large-caps. That said, SMID stocks can be risky. The standard deviation for monthly returns was 5.7% for SMID stocks over a 2003-2021 test period, versus 4.3% for large-caps. Still, despite the risks, diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record.

U.S. equities inched higher on Thursday despite regional bank woes and ahead of the CPI revisions that will be released this morning. After hitting 5000 for the first time ever, the S&P 500 closed just below 5000. The Dow also closed at an all-time high. Big stock gainers include Arm Holdings PLC (ARM), up 48% and Ralph Lauren Corp. (RL), up 25%. The S&P 500 closed up less than 0.1%, the Dow was up 0.1% and the Nasdaq gained 0.2%. Crude oil rose above $76 per barrel and gold was up $1 to $2049 per ounce.

With many of the elite stocks technically overbought after huge moves in late 2023 and early 2024, we've done a search for stocks that might provide some 'alpha' if the red-hot AI stocks finally take a break. We examined how much the actual return of an investment might exceed its expected return based on its risk level. We asked our Certified Market Technician Mark Arbeter to study charts for technical signals that favor individual stocks and predict their alpha. Mark reported that it is difficult to find strong technical setups at this time. Still, he looked for stocks that have been beaten down but show evidence that the worst is over. Technical characteristics for these stocks include an existing intermediate- to long-term downtrend, capitulatory volume during weakness followed by an upside reversal, bullish daily and weekly momentum divergences, and (most importantly) signs that the stock is at least attempting to trace out a bottoming pattern. Mark looks for these bottom formations in certain trading patterns. Here's a list of Argus Research BUY-rated stocks that fit Mark's technical model, signally possibly upside ahead.

Stocks edged lower on Friday after briefly rising following a stronger-than-expected employment report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 199,000 payroll jobs in November, up from 150,000 in October and above the Bloomberg consensus forecast of 185,000. The increase was driven in part by the return of workers following the UAW and Hollywood strikes. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7%, down from 3.9% in October and below the consensus forecast. The University of Michigan sentiment index increased to 69.4. The Dow rose 0.02%, while the S&P 500 was down 0.04%, and the Nasdaq was flat. Crude oil traded near $71 per barrel, while gold fell $22 to $2025 per ounce.

Small- and mid-cap stocks (SMID) have underperformed large-caps over the past 12 months, but may be in a better position to generate market-beating returns going forward. SMID companies tend to focus on domestic markets, so their businesses could be less disrupted by the fallout from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, high European inflation or other geopolitical developments. As well, the prices of SMID stocks generally are lower than the prices of large-caps. SMID stocks can be risky, but diversified investors look to have exposure to small- and mid-caps based on the long-term performance record. We estimate that 12%-15% of the U.S. stock market's capitalization is comprised of SMID stocks. For our purposes, we use a threshold of $20 billion to define a SMID stock.

With July 2023 now in the books, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Nasdaq 100 have all risen for five consecutive months, tacking on 16%, 25%, and 31%, respectively. For the month, the '500' rose 3%, the Nasdaq, Nasdaq 100 and S&P MidCap 400 all gained 4%, and the Russell 2000 popped 6%.

We don't often see stock-market polls from fellow technicians, but invitees at an event celebrating the 50th anniversary of the Chartered Market Technicians Association in NYC were asked to forecast how the S&P 500 (SPX) would end the year. With the index drifting sideways for the past year, it's not surprising that a majority (55%) expected the index to remain range bound between 3,750 and 4,250 -- which is where we have been for most months going back to 2022. This is one of the basic tenets of technical analysis: the trend is your friend, until it isn't. It also is known as recency bias: what recently happened is expected to continue, as it is the freshest in the mind of most investors. The poll did tilt toward the bullish side, with 31% looking for a move on the SPX to above 4,500, while 11% were bearish.

Monday Tee Up: Heavy on Earnings, Light on the Economy

Stocks fell on Monday morning, driven in part by concerns about the economic impact of anti-lockdown protests in China. Apple shares fell nearly 2% after Bloomberg reported that worker unrest at the Foxconn plant in Zhengzhou that manufactures iPhones could lead to a six-million unit shortfall in iPhone Pro production this year. The Dow fell 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 0.7%. Crude oil traded near $76 per barrel, while gold fell $7 to $1748 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning after recovering from early losses. Manufacturing data was slightly better than expected. The Institute for Supply Management said that its national factory index slipped to 52.8 in July, down from 53.0 in June but above the Reuters consensus forecast of 52.0. The Dow and the S&P were flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.5%. Crude oil fell more than 4% to $94 per barrel, while gold fell slightly to $1782 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Monday morning following Friday's massive selloff, as investors awaited the Fed's policy statement on Wednesday and a likely 50-basis-point rate hike. Manufacturing data disappointed. The Institute for Supply Management said that its U.S. factory index fell to 55.4 in April, down from 57.1 in March and below the Reuters consensus forecast of 57.6. The reading was the lowest since July 2020. The Dow fell 0.3%, the S&P fell 0.3%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $104 per barrel, while gold traded near $1868 per ounce.

The stock market kicked off February with a winning week, though 2022 remains deeply in the loss column. On Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down by 21 points, or 0.06%. The S&P 500 was up 0.52%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 1.58%. For the week, the DJIA was up 364 points, or 1.05%, the S&P 500 was up 1.55%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2.38%. Year-to-date, the Dow is down 3.44%; the S&P 500 is off 5.57%; and the Nasdaq Composite is on the edge of correction territory, down 9.89%.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

Stocks were mixed on Thursday as investors weighed a range of earnings reports and new employment data. Macy's shares jumped more than 21% after the retailer posted strong 3Q earnings and raised its full-year guidance. Nvidia shares also rose on stronger-than-expected results, while Cisco fell on weak sales guidance and supply-chain concerns. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to 268,000 for the week ended November 13, down slightly from the prior week but above the consensus forecast of 260,000. Continuing claims fell to 2.08 million, down from 2.209 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 0.17%, the S&P rose 0.34%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.45%. Crude oil fell slightly to $79 per barrel, while gold fell to $1861 per ounce.

We recently raised our rating on the Basic Materials sector to Over-Weight. Despite challenges presented by the Delta variant and the tenacity of COVID-19, the global economy continues to reopen, spurring demand for goods and underscoring scarcity across the supply chain. In this environment, we look for demand for commodities to remain robust and pricing to remain strong. The sector accounts for 2.5% of the S&P 500, and includes industries such as chemicals, paper, metals and mining. Over the past five years, the weighting has ranged from 2% to 4%. We think investors should consider allocating 3% of their diversified portfolios to stocks in this sector. The sector is underperforming thus far in 2021, with a gain of 17.7%. It outperformed in 2020, with a gain of 18.1%, and underperformed in 2019, with a gain of 21.9%. Here is how we use our analysts' Materials sector ideas in our Focus List and Model Portfolios.

The stock market was flat to down last week as positive earnings surprises proved to be baked-in. Tech stocks modestly underperformed blue chips. During Friday's session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 149 points, or 0.42%. The S&P 500 was down 0.54%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.71%. For the week, the DJIA was down 126 points, or 0.36%, the S&P 500 was down 0.37%, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 1.11%. Year-to-date, the DJIA is up 14.14%, the S&P 500 is up 17.02%, and the Nasdaq Composite is up 13.85%.

Stocks rose on Friday morning, led by the Technology sector, as a disappointing April jobs report diminished concerns that the Fed would cut back on bond purchases. The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell sharply to about 1.55% following the report. The Labor Department said that the U.S. added just 266,000 jobs in April, down from 770,000 in March and well below the Reuters consensus forecast of 978,000. The official unemployment rate ticked up to 6.1% from 6.0% in March. The Dow rose 0.5%, the S&P 0.8%, and the Nasdaq 1.3%. Crude oil traded near $65 per barrel, while gold rose $15 to $1831 per ounce.

Stocks were largely flat on Tuesday morning after a week of strong gains as investors awaited next steps in the passage of the Biden administration's stimulus plan. On the employment front, the Labor Department, in its monthly JOLTS report, said that U.S. job openings rose slightly in December, to 6.65 million, while hiring fell to 5.54 million from 5.94 million in November. The Dow and the S&P were flat, while the Nasdaq rose 0.3%. Crude oil traded near $58 per barrel, while gold rose $3 to $1837 per ounce.

Stocks were mostly lower on Friday morning as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continued to surge, and states and cities imposed new measures to help control the pandemic. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin's decision not to extend emergency lending programs beyond the end of the year also weighed on sentiment. Two federal unemployment benefit programs, currently providing assistance to more than 12 million workers, are also set to expire at the end of the year. The Dow fell 0.4%, the S&P fell 0.2%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to $41.50 per barrel, while gold rose $12 to $1873 per ounce.

Stocks rose on Thursday afternoon, reversing early losses, on news of revived fiscal stimulus talks in Washington. However, investors also focused on soaring coronavirus cases and the economic impact of new pandemic-related restrictions. On the employment front, first-time unemployment benefit claims rose from the prior week to 742,000, above the consensus forecast of 700,000, while continuing claims fell to 6.372 million, below the consensus of 6.4 million. However, an additional 233,000 Americans began to receive extended federal employment benefits as their state benefits expired. The Dow rose 0.15%, the S&P 0.39%, and the Nasdaq 0.87%. Crude oil rose slightly to $42 per barrel, while gold fell $8 to $1866 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following a historically weak GDP report and continued grim employment data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP fell at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter. The decline was the steepest since the start of record-keeping in 1947. On the employment front, the Labor Department reported that 1.434 million Americans filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ended July 25, slightly below the consensus forecast and up from 1.416 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $40 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1957 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following a historically weak GDP report and continued grim employment data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP fell at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter. The decline was the steepest since the start of record-keeping in 1947. On the employment front, the Labor Department reported that 1.434 million Americans filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ended July 25, slightly below the consensus forecast and up from 1.416 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $40 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1957 per ounce.

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning as investors awaited an afternoon policy statement from the Fed. On the earnings front, Apple posted better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, driven by strong sales of iPhones, wearables, and accessories. GE shares rose more than 9% after the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 4Q19. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $53 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1571 per ounce.

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning as investors awaited an afternoon policy statement from the Fed. On the earnings front, Apple posted better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, driven by strong sales of iPhones, wearables, and accessories. GE shares rose more than 9% after the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 4Q19. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $53 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1571 per ounce.

Stocks fell on Thursday morning following a historically weak GDP report and continued grim employment data. The Commerce Department said that U.S. GDP fell at a 32.9% annualized rate in the second quarter. The decline was the steepest since the start of record-keeping in 1947. On the employment front, the Labor Department reported that 1.434 million Americans filed for state unemployment benefits in the week ended July 25, slightly below the consensus forecast and up from 1.416 million a week earlier. The Dow fell 1.1%, the S&P 0.7%, and the Nasdaq 0.1%. Crude oil fell more than 3% to $40 per barrel, while gold fell $20 to $1957 per ounce.

A few weeks ago, at the height of earnings season, we were undertaking our weekly review of insider-transaction data from Vickers Stock Research. Transaction volume was low because many insiders were restricted from trading. We wrote: 'As earnings season draws to a close, trades made by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners will again play a greater role in our analysis.' As a result, we continued, 'we'll get a better sense of where insider sentiment is headed.'

Stocks rose modestly on Wednesday morning as investors awaited an afternoon policy statement from the Fed. On the earnings front, Apple posted better-than-expected fiscal 1Q results, driven by strong sales of iPhones, wearables, and accessories. GE shares rose more than 9% after the company topped consensus revenue and EPS estimates for 4Q19. The Dow rose 0.4%, the S&P 0.2%, and the Nasdaq 0.2%. Crude oil fell slightly to about $53 per barrel, while gold rose $1 to $1571 per ounce.

Economic Concerns Fading, along with Trade-Deal Optimism

Economic Concerns Fading, along with Trade-Deal Optimism

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning, continuing Thursday's selloff on concerns about President Trump's threat to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 164,000 payroll jobs last month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus forecast and down from a revised 193,000 in June. The official unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 3.2% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth. The S&P fell 1.0%, the Dow 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $55 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $1458 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning, continuing Thursday's selloff on concerns about President Trump's threat to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 164,000 payroll jobs last month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus forecast and down from a revised 193,000 in June. The official unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 3.2% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth. The S&P fell 1.0%, the Dow 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $55 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $1458 per ounce.

As earnings season winds down, the volume of insider transactions ramps up. Within that well-established pattern comes increased relevance to the signals thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. We've used this space to point out that recent insider sentiment has been moving in a cautious direction, but not to a degree that has been of concern. This week, we still feel that way. But, as always, there are a few developments that are worth considering.

As earnings season winds down, the volume of insider transactions ramps up. Within that well-established pattern comes increased relevance to the signals thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. We've used this space to point out that recent insider sentiment has been moving in a cautious direction, but not to a degree that has been of concern. This week, we still feel that way. But, as always, there are a few developments that are worth considering.

Stocks pared early losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq managing a small gain, as investors weighed prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal and new economic data. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell a sharp 1.2% in December, down from 0.1% growth in November and well below the consensus forecast. U.S. producer prices also fell slightly for a second straight month. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time unemployment claims rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended February 9. The Reuters consensus had projected a decline to 225,000. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P fell 0.27%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.09%. Crude oil rose 1% to $54.50 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1316 per ounce.

Stocks pared early losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq managing a small gain, as investors weighed prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal and new economic data. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell a sharp 1.2% in December, down from 0.1% growth in November and well below the consensus forecast. U.S. producer prices also fell slightly for a second straight month. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time unemployment claims rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended February 9. The Reuters consensus had projected a decline to 225,000. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P fell 0.27%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.09%. Crude oil rose 1% to $54.50 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1316 per ounce.

Stocks fell sharply on Friday morning, continuing Thursday's selloff on concerns about President Trump's threat to impose a new round of tariffs on Chinese imports. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that the U.S. economy added 164,000 payroll jobs last month, slightly below the Bloomberg consensus forecast and down from a revised 193,000 in June. The official unemployment rate held steady at 3.7%. Average hourly wages rose 3.2% from the prior year, above the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth. The S&P fell 1.0%, the Dow 0.9%, and the Nasdaq 1.5%. Crude oil rose 2.5% to $55 per barrel, while gold rose $26 to $1458 per ounce.

As earnings season winds down, the volume of insider transactions ramps up. Within that well-established pattern comes increased relevance to the signals thrown off by corporate executives, directors and beneficial owners. We've used this space to point out that recent insider sentiment has been moving in a cautious direction, but not to a degree that has been of concern. This week, we still feel that way. But, as always, there are a few developments that are worth considering.

Stocks pared early losses on Thursday, with the Nasdaq managing a small gain, as investors weighed prospects for a U.S.-China trade deal and new economic data. The Commerce Department reported that retail sales fell a sharp 1.2% in December, down from 0.1% growth in November and well below the consensus forecast. U.S. producer prices also fell slightly for a second straight month. On the employment front, the Labor Department said that first-time unemployment claims rose by 4,000 to a seasonally adjusted 239,000 for the week ended February 9. The Reuters consensus had projected a decline to 225,000. The Dow fell 0.41%, the S&P fell 0.27%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.09%. Crude oil rose 1% to $54.50 per barrel, while gold rose slightly to $1316 per ounce.

Insider sentiment, which has been exceedingly bullish over the past several weeks, has pulled back a bit this week. But let's be clear. It was exceedingly bullish before; now it is only very bullish. Indeed, the rather remarkable steak of eye-popping insider-sentiment results remains in full force and effect this week.

Insider sentiment, which has been exceedingly bullish over the past several weeks, has pulled back a bit this week. But let's be clear. It was exceedingly bullish before; now it is only very bullish. Indeed, the rather remarkable steak of eye-popping insider-sentiment results remains in full force and effect this week.

Insider sentiment, which has been exceedingly bullish over the past several weeks, has pulled back a bit this week. But let's be clear. It was exceedingly bullish before; now it is only very bullish. Indeed, the rather remarkable steak of eye-popping insider-sentiment results remains in full force and effect this week.

Economic Concerns Fading, along with Trade-Deal Optimism

Insider sentiment, which has been exceedingly bullish over the past several weeks, has pulled back a bit this week. But let's be clear. It was exceedingly bullish before; now it is only very bullish. Indeed, the rather remarkable steak of eye-popping insider-sentiment results remains in full force and effect this week.