With its stock down 9.7% over the past three months, it is easy to disregard Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE). To decide if this trend could continue, we decided to look at its weak fundamentals as they shape the long-term market trends. Specifically, we decided to study Treasury Wine Estates' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

See our latest analysis for Treasury Wine Estates

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Treasury Wine Estates is:

2.1% = AU$99m ÷ AU$4.6b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the amount earned after tax over the last twelve months. That means that for every A$1 worth of shareholders' equity, the company generated A$0.02 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Generally speaking, other things being equal, firms with a high return on equity and profit retention, have a higher growth rate than firms that don’t share these attributes.

A Side By Side comparison of Treasury Wine Estates' Earnings Growth And 2.1% ROE

It is hard to argue that Treasury Wine Estates' ROE is much good in and of itself. Even compared to the average industry ROE of 12%, the company's ROE is quite dismal. For this reason, Treasury Wine Estates' five year net income decline of 11% is not surprising given its lower ROE. We reckon that there could also be other factors at play here. For instance, the company has a very high payout ratio, or is faced with competitive pressures.

So, as a next step, we compared Treasury Wine Estates' performance against the industry and were disappointed to discover that while the company has been shrinking its earnings, the industry has been growing its earnings at a rate of 12% over the last few years.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. The investor should try to establish if the expected growth or decline in earnings, whichever the case may be, is priced in. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Treasury Wine Estates is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.