AXT, Inc. (NASDAQ:AXTI) just released its latest full-year results and things are looking bullish. Results overall were credible, with revenues arriving 3.9% better than analyst forecasts at US$76m. Higher revenues also resulted in lower statutory losses, which were US$0.42 per share, some 3.9% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for AXT

Following the latest results, AXT's five analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$92.4m in 2024. This would be a substantial 22% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 76% to US$0.10. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$86.9m and losses of US$0.31 per share in 2024. There's been a pretty noticeable increase in sentiment, with the analysts upgrading revenues and making a considerable decrease in loss per share in particular.

The consensus price target rose 14% to US$4.71, with the analysts encouraged by the higher revenue and lower forecast losses for next year. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic AXT analyst has a price target of US$6.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$3.75. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that AXT's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 22% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 5.3% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 15% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that AXT is expected to grow much faster than its industry.